Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
